Beyond the High-Rises: Can Nairobi House Its Next Generation?

Nairobi faces a critical challenge in providing adequate and affordable housing for its rapidly growing young population. With half of Kenya's population under 19 in 2019, these Gen Zers are now entering adulthood and seeking places to live in urban centers like Nairobi. However, the city's current urban development trajectory, marked by towering high-rise flats and escalating housing costs, threatens to marginalize its youth and the broader working class. The economic realities for Nairobi's Gen Z are stark. Alarmingly high unemployment rates persist, pushing many into the informal Jua Kali sector, which is characterized by low wages and job insecurity. For instance, the median income for young men aged 21 is KShs 9,000, and for young women, KShs 6,000. These profoundly low wages make basic needs a constant struggle and homeownership an unattainable dream. This is exacerbated by extreme wealth inequality, where less than 0.1 percent of the population owns more wealth than the bottom 99.9 percent. Gentrification is a significant force reshaping Nairobi's landscape. Influential local coalitions of business leaders, politicians, and developers drive urban expansion and lucrative real estate projects. This frequently leads to gentrification, defined by increasing property values, the eviction of lower-class inhabitants, and profound modifications to social and economic makeup. Research shows that growth coalitions have pushed the Nairobi City County government to enact zoning amendments supporting dense residential and commercial projects. In Eastleigh, high-rise developments have escalated property values and rent, threatening to displace long-term, low-income residents into already overcrowded informal settlements like Mathare and Korogocho. Kilimani and Kileleshwa are experiencing similar effects. The housing market's anticipated 4.3 percent compound annual growth rate between 2023 and 2027 means property values will remain beyond the financial reach of lower-income residents. Currently, nearly 70 percent of Nairobi’s 4.4 million residents are tenants renting single-room units, and land ownership is largely out of reach, with 20 percent of the population owning more than 65 percent of productive land in Kenya. This housing crisis is actively dividing Nairobi, creating spatial inequality and social fragmentation. As housing costs skyrocket in central areas, young people and low-income families are pushed to the city’s periphery, where infrastructure is often inadequate, lacking reliable public transportation, quality schools, and healthcare facilities. This spatial isolation traps residents in a cycle of disadvantage. Beyond practical limitations, the inability to afford decent housing erodes social cohesion. The visual contrast between luxury developments and sprawling informal settlements fosters feelings of marginalization and can lead to social unrest. The absence of mixed-income communities hinders social interaction, reinforces prejudices, and creates social silos, making it harder to address systemic inequalities. Addressing Nairobi's housing deficit, estimated at 244,000 units annually, is urgent, especially as half of Kenya's population is projected to be urban by 2050. Fortunately, global best practices offer valuable insights. Rio de Janeiro's Cooperativa Esperança showcases community-led, self-managed housing cooperatives, where families collectively build homes with government support. Vienna, Austria, boasts a successful model of social rented housing, with over 50 percent of its housing stock catering to low-income residents through municipal housing and limited-profit housing associations that reinvest profits and cap rents. Singapore focuses on facilitating homeownership through targeted low-income subsidies like the Additional CPF Housing Grant Scheme. Copenhagen, Denmark, champions housing cooperatives and co-housing, fostering community while reducing costs, and prioritizes social housing for vulnerable groups. These diverse examples from Brazil, Austria, Singapore, and Denmark illustrate that effective solutions exist. While the specific contexts and policy instruments will require adaptation to Nairobi’s unique circumstances, the underlying principles of community empowerment, strong regulatory frameworks, targeted subsidies, and the promotion of diverse housing tenure offer a roadmap. By learning from these global best practices, Nairobi can move towards creating a city where housing is not a privilege, but a fundamental right accessible to all its citizens, including its next generation.